The Beginning of Sorrows...
Have They Started?
By Ken Marineau

The above verses are familiar ones to those who have studied Bible Prophecy.  They are quoted often as evidence that we are in the last days before the return of Jesus Christ.   Verse 8 is interpreted to mean that the signs Jesus just referenced would all be happening simultaneously and like birth pains, would increase in intensity and frequency.   Then charts or graphs, especially of earthquakes, are presented to show that this is what actually happened.

I accepted that interpretation for quite some time, but then I began thinking that if the signs are being compared to birth pains, with their frequency and intensity increasing, then shouldn't we take the comparison a bit farther?  Consider a pregnant woman beginning to have birth pains, do they go on for weeks and months?  No, usually the birth occurs relatively quickly once the labor pains begin.  If these signs are the start of birth pains, or the "beginning of sorrows" as interpreted in the King James Version, then this birth is taking a long time!  If they are being likened to birth pains, then these signs should be of fairly short duration, with the "birth" or the sorrows described in the book of Revelation starting relatively soon.  This idea prompted me to begin my own study of these beginning signs, because the popular interpretation didn't satisfy the idea that the signs must be of short duration.   The first step I took was to begin to verify that the signs have actually been increasing in frequency and intensity.  Since earthquake figures are readily available and are used a lot in articles on Bible prophecy, that's what I checked first, and I was surprised by what I found!

To start, let's look at the earthquake figures that Hal Lindsey provides in his book, "Planet Earth-2000 A.D." on page 83.  Please take note that I am only using Hal Lindsey as an example, because the earthquake information he presents is typical of what many well known prophecy teachers have presented.

Lindsey gives the number of earthquakes measuring 6.0 or greater for each decade from 1890 to 1989.  The data, Lindsey states, comes from the U.S. Geological Survey in Boulder Colorado.  The table below summarizes that data.

I have seen, as I'm sure many of you have also, similar tables to the one above.  It appears very convincing.  A very neat progression in the frequency of magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquakes over a period of ten decades.   But ten decades, now even longer, seems like to much time for "birth pains" to continue!  I wanted to see these statistics for myself, so a query in Alta Vista brought me to the site for the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC), with a table showing the number of earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater from 1900 - 2005.  The statistics in this table were compiled from the Earthquake Data Base System of the U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center, Golden, Colorado. This information was very surprising!  Lindsey's chart showed magnitude 6.0 or greater, so the number of quakes shown on Lindsey's chart should be greater than the number shown on the chart I found.   However, the chart I found showed many more quakes than Lindsey's.  Look at the chart below which compares the figures from Lindsey's book and from the chart I found on March 19, 1999.   (Currently updated through 2005).   Remember that the data for both columns comes from the U.S Geological Survey, and that the number of quakes in the Magnitude 6.0 or greater column should be greater than the number of quakes in the magnitude 7.0 or greater column.

As you can see, the figures I found show absolutely no progression upward or downward in frequency since 1900. I also found the below statement in the FAQ section of the USGS site.

"Although it may seem that we are having more earthquakes, earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater have remained fairly constant throughout this century and, according to our records, have actually seemed to decrease in recent years. A partial explanation may lie in the fact that in the last twenty years, we have definitely had an increase in the number of earthquakes we have been able to locate each year. This is because of the tremendous increase in the number of seismograph stations in the world and the many improvements in global communications."

I then did my own search of the NEIC database for Significant Worldwide Earthquakes.  I searched for earthquakes worldwide from January 1, 1900 to December 31, 1999 by decade.  Click here if you would like to conduct your own search.  I was unable again to duplicate the results Hal Lindsey had in his chart.  I was unable to produce any results that showed a progression in the number or severity of earthquakes in the years from 1900 - 1999.  Below are the results of my search for earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 or greater, the same magnitude Lindsey used in his chart.  Each decade begins January 1st of the starting year and ends December 31st of the ending year.

As you can see, again, there is no progression in the increase in earthquakes.  If you decide to conduct some searches of this data yourself, you should be aware that the data is pulled from several different catalog sources, therefore the information you get from your searches may not match exactly some of the charts you see on the NEIC site. For instance, using the worldwide search, I could not duplicate the chart above showing magnitude 7.0 or greater.  This is because that chart was created using the PDE catalog, and searches are done using the NOAA catalog.  Click here for an explanation of the catalog sources.  The results however are the same using any of the catalogs.  There is no progression.

Please follow the links given above and check these figures out for yourself.  Don't ask me to explain why Lindsey's figures, and those of many other prophecy teachers are so different from the ones I found because I don't know.  What I do know now, is that earthquake data shows clearly that earthquakes are not increasing in frequency.  If the interpretation requires that the signs will increase in frequency, but the actual data says that isn't what is happening, then either we are not in the beginning of sorrows and/or the popular interpretation of these birth pain signs is wrong.

I believe that both are true. We aren't in the beginning of sorrows, and the popular interpretation of the signs is wrong. So how do these signs fit into the big picture, and how should they be interpreted?  The similarity of the "birth pains" to the signs mentioned, may not only be in the frequency or intensity, but also in the proximity of the pains to the birth, or the proximity of the signs to the end (of the age).

I believe that these initial signs occur, and then like birth pains, are followed fairly quickly by a time of great tribulation culminating in the return of Christ.  This idea of the end time events happening suddenly is reinforced in the following verses.

(1 Thessalonians 5:1-3) Now, brothers, about times and dates we do not need to write to you, {2} for you know very well that the day of the Lord will come like a thief in the night. {3} While people are saying, "Peace and safety," destruction will come on them suddenly, as labor pains on a pregnant woman, and they will not escape. (Emphasis mine)

The same word is used here for "birth pains" or "sorrows" as in Matthew 24:8, but here the term is used to imply how suddenly the destruction of the last days will come.  I strongly believe that the end time events will occur just as told in these verses.  Most people will not be aware anything bad is going to happen.  Times will be such that they have been lulled into a false sense of security.  But just as that first stab of pain occurs signaling childbirth, so will the signs appear that Jesus describes as "the beginning of sorrows".   Wars, earthquakes, diseases, all will happen and will be of sufficient magnitude and number that it will be obvious to all that this is far beyond normal.  When these birth pain signs begin, people will be frightened due to the number and intensity of them, enough to think that perhaps it is the end of the world!  Of these things  Jesus tells us, "...see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come."  As bad as these things are they are only the beginning of the destruction that is coming.  What will immediately follow are those terrible times referred to as the "tribulation" as revealed in the Book of Revelation.   Times so bad that of them Jesus states, "For then there will be great distress, unequaled from the beginning of the world until now--and never to be equaled again."  Matthew 24:21

To summarize, I don't believe we are in the "beginning of sorrows" yet, but in view of what you have read, you should not be lulled into a sense of complacency.  The Jewish people are returning to their land.  Israel is the great sign!  If you read my commentary on Israel, Israel: The Greatest sign, you will see that the Jews could not have regained control of their former homeland, unless it was God's will for them to do so.   While the return of the Jews to their land does not set a specific time frame during which Christ might return, we certainly can entertain the possibility that His return could be soon!  The "beginning of sorrows" could very well start suddenly at any time without warning, and when they do, there will be no doubt about it!

There is no guarantee for you or for me, how many tomorrows we may have.  The end of this age will come suddenly and will be followed by the terrible events written about in the Book of Revelation.  But if you are part of God's family, you need not fear or be apprehensive about the future.  The Book of Revelation also describes the wonderful home God has prepared for His children, those who trust in His Son, Jesus Christ.  It is Jesus who can give you peace of heart and mind even in the face of tribulation, and the guarantee of  eternal life, filled with happiness and freedom from sin, death and disease.  Jesus wants to have a personal relationship with you, a relationship that makes you a part of God's family!  If you don't know for certain that you are a part of God's family, or if you are unsure of your status with God, act soon, act now!  The time to think about it may literally run out, suddenly.